iSET Journal X:X | DOI: 10.66829/iset.2026.001

Numerical Modelling and Time‑to‑Threshold Prediction of Spontaneous Combustion in Post‑Mining and Abandoned Deposits

Petr Klouda, Vlastimil Moni

VUHU j. s. c., Czech Republic

Spontaneous combustion remains a significant safety and environmental risk in abandoned stockpiles, spoil heaps, and post mining deposits containing reactive carbonaceous materials. This study presents an integrated framework for the assessment and prediction of spontaneous combustion risk based on the combined use of long term monitoring data, statistical trend analysis, and physically based numerical modelling, developed in line with the preventive principles of the FRAM concept.\r\nA three dimensional numerical model is employed to describe coupled heat and mass transfer in a porous reactive body, explicitly accounting for oxygen transport, low temperature oxidation, and the influence of atmospheric boundary conditions, including wind induced aeration. The model provides spatially resolved insight into temperature evolution, oxygen depletion, and the formation of localised hot spots associated with accelerated self heating.\r\nIn parallel, trend based predictors derived from monitoring time series are used to estimate the remaining time to reach critical thermal conditions. The results demonstrate that the combination of numerical modelling and data driven prediction enables early identification of hazardous states and improves the reliability of risk assessment.\r\nThe proposed framework supports preventive fire risk management by providing actionable information for targeted monitoring, prioritisation of mitigation measures, and decision support in post mining and abandoned storage environments.

spontaneous combustion; CFD modelling; heat and mass transfer; oxygen transport; fire‑risk assessment; early‑warning prediction; post‑mining environments

Received: March 31, 2026; Revised: May 4, 2026; Accepted: May 4, 2026; Prepublished online: June 22, 2026